Sociological Cycles: The Role of Expectation-Reality Gaps

Version 1.1

Abstract

The contribution deals with periodic phenomena that are often met in sociology. After shortly reviewing such phenomena in various disciplines ranging from physics to economy, it is shown that many of the sociological processes can be simply understood in terms of expectation-reality gaps, with memory effects being a necessary prerequisite. A perceived gap between expectation and reality (or in more general but less precise terms between “seeming” and “being”) tends to drive a sociological action in the direction of reducing this gap, but – owing to the intrinsic inertia – only after such difference between what is to be expected (what has been promised) and what has been actually achieved has been perceived over quite a time. This constellation causes a periodic behavior given basic (linear) relations between the involved functionalities. As exemplified for the master-example of a hyped technology, a very simple description of typical over-motivation-frustration cycles is thus arrived at. Computer simulations using an alternative approach based on collision events, support the idea that it is memory that leads to the characteristic time behavior. Though exemplified using the technology-example, the general approach can be used as a platform for various other problems, even for oscillations in the field of fashion. In order to understand the amplitude of such oscillations, a model of the respective prehistory is necessary. In this context such diverse topics as innovation jumps or tabooization are addressed. It is also indicated how learning effects can be implemented in a simple manner. All the models are purposefully kept very simple but believed to hit the basic points and hence to enable sharper definitions of otherwise extremely loosely defined terms. Even abstractions such as sociological equivalent circuits are shown to be helpful.

Corrected Version 1.1